Whenever we jump to conclusions we are assuming that the world still works the way it used to.
In a world that is changing so fast, this is likely to create problems.
These problems aren’t necessarily to do with whether or not our assumptions turn out to be correct. The real problem is that jumping to conclusions makes us lazy. It stops us checking whether we really understand the situation. It stops us preparing for the unexpected. It stops us seeing the other opportunities (and threats) that also exist. And it stops us taking the steps we could have taken to maximise our chances of getting the outcomes we want.
Avoiding all this is surprisingly easy. We only need to do four things:
- Check whether we are making any of the eight most common assumptions
- Consider what other interpretations might also be possible (and which is or are most likely)
- Get clearer on the outcome we most want, and why
- Take actions to manage our downsides and make our upsides more likely
If we do all these four things then we might still end up taking the same action — and events beyond our control might still happen. But by thinking through the situation more deeply, getting clearer on what we really want and why, and by ensuring that we have done everything we can to make that happen, we increase our focus, our inspiration, and our enthusiasm, and we give ourselves the best chance of achieving the outcomes we most want. And if events then still don’t turn out in the way we wanted, we also give ourselves the maximum flexibility, energy, and understanding to quickly find a new way forward.
In this time of increasing change, all these things will be invaluable. And they will help to make you antifragile.
Have you ever jumped to a conclusion or made an assumption that turned out to be incorrect? What were the consequences? Have you jumped to any conclusions recently about the projects you are currently working on? Is it worth considering what other interpretations might also be possible and what additional actions you might take to maximise your upsides and minimise your risk?
Adapted from Inner Leadership: a framework and tools for building inspiration in times of change.
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